The only way that Mine That Bird loses is if he has been overworked in the past 6 weeks.
there are a few reasons mine that bird may not win the belmont. 3 races since the saturday in may is one. and that’s a possible reason thought mine that bird has appeared to be excellent shape comng into the race. a horse the races from far off the pace as mine that bird does can’t control certain aspects of the race. the pace is very important for a horse with a late ruuning style. if there is a fast early pace that would favor mine that bird because a fast pace will usually means the front runners will back up late in the race allowing a fast closing horse like mine that bird to rally. however if mine that bird is far back in the first mile of the race and the pace is slow the jockey on mine that bird will have to make a move much earlier than the horse is used to and with a slower pace speed holds up more often. none of these horses have raced a mile and half so no one knows how that will effect any of the horses. mine that bird’s sire won the belmont and summer bird is sired by the same horse as mind that bird (bird stone) chairtable man is sired by lemon drop kid another belmont winner and most of the other starters have bloodlines leading to sires and dams of belmont winners. so breeding is important but breeding isn’t an exact science. the belmont track is usually very sandy and some horses never get the feel for it. though i would think with the rain from yesterday the track was sealed last night and will probably be a little less sandy and more solid and probably be very fast today. so pace may be the biggest factor in the race.