Sunday morning as we sat in the press box at Lincoln Financial Field awaiting the start of the NCAA men’s lacrosse championship game, Terp Talk host and sports maven Bruce Posner and I talked about the NCAA prospects for Maryland’s baseball team. Bruce was confident that, with a record of 39-21 the Terps were, essentially a shoe in to make the field of 64.
I felt a bit less sanguine. After losing the Big Ten Tournament final to Michigan, Maryland’s RPI dropped to 42 and their strength of schedule to 82. Of the 30 at-large bids available, at least two had likely disappeared by virtue of Michigan and Texas winning their conference tournaments because neither would have had a spot without securing their conference’s automatic qualifying bid.
As it turned out, we were, in some ways both right. Maryland baseball fans – at least this Maryland baseball fan – exhaled early in the NCAA selection show Monday afternoon. The Terps had made the tournament but, as the show later revealed, Maryland was one of the last four teams to do so.
Although the early announcement removed the tension of waiting it carried good news and not so good news.
The good news: the Terps were the third seed in the very first bracket announced. The not so good news came in two parts: 1) Maryland has to play their regional on the west coast; 2) the Terps are in the bracket with the top overall seed and defending national champion UCLA Bruins who are 26-6 on their home field this season.
The second seed, the Ole’ Miss Rebels of the SEC will be Maryland’s first opponent in the first game of the double elimination round Friday at 7:00 pm Eastern. In the second game of the regional UCLA will take on Cal State Bakersfield. The losers will meet in the first game on Saturday with Friday’s winners facing off in the nightcap.
We’ll take a look at UCLA and Bakersfield later in the week. For now, let’s take a closer look at the Terrapins’ first for, the Ole Miss Rebels.
The Basics
University of Mississippi
Founded 1844
Student Population (2014) 15,411
Nickname: Ole Miss Rebels
Conference: Southeastern
Athletic Department Revenue (2014): $68,875,768
Athletic Department Expenses (2014): $68,013.048
2015 Mississippi Baseball #2 Seed UCLA Regional
Overall record: 30-26
Conference record: 15-14
Road record: 10-13
Neutral site: 1-2
RPI: 31
Record vs. RPI top 50: 13-13
Record vs. RPI 51-100: 4-11:
Strength of Schedule: 1
Let’s put on our Oxfords and take a longer walk through the Ole Miss season
The Ole Miss Rebels are one of seven SEC teams to reach the NCAA Tournament field of 64 and one of six to finish over .500 in conference play. Mississippi finished fourth in the SEC West behind LSU, Texas A & M and Arkansas. The first two are among the top 16 seeds and are hosting a regional.
Just as when Maryland played in the ACC, Mississippi could rely on their conference schedule to build much of their RPI and schedule strength with four SEC teams in the RPI top ten. The Rebels also played on the road at RPI 12 and NCAA third seed Louisville splitting a pair of games with the Cardinals.
As we’ll see below, the Terps and the Rebels are comparable offensively with Maryland holding a statistical edge in pitching. In terms of schedule, Maryland was 12-9 against RPI top 50 teams and 4-7 versus teams in the 51 to 100 range.This compares favorably with Mississippi’s 13-13 and 4-11 records against those groups.
Where the Terrapins faltered that the Rebels did not is in facing the weaker teams on the schedule. Ole Miss was 12-2 against teams between 101 and 200 and won their only game against a team whose RPI was above 200. The Terps, meanwhile were 16-3 against the first group and 7-2 against teams 201 and above in RPI. It’s those nine games that dragged down Maryland’s schedule strength and the two losses had an impact on their RPI.
The pitching match-up
Maryland Will Likely send sophomore ace Mike Shawaryn to the hill in Friday night’s opener. The All Big Ten right hander from Carney’s Point, NJ enters the NCAA Tournament with a 12-2 record. He pitched to a 1.65 ERP over 103.1 innings and led the B1G in strikeouts with 124. Opponents batted just .204 against him.
Shawaryn’s likely opponent will be left hander Christian Trent. Trent, a junior, started 14 games for the Rebels finishing the season 7-6 with a 3.70 ERA. He leads Mississippi in innings pitched with 92.1. Opponents are hitting a healthy .277 against him but he doesn’t give up a lot of free bases having issued just 19 walks (about one per five innings) while hitting six hitters.
Head coach Mike Bianco could choose to send sophomore Brady Bramlett to the hill. Bramlett is a right hander who has also started 14 games winning seven and losing three. Although he possesses the better winning percentage, Bramlett’s ERA of 3.84 is slightly higher than Trent’s. He has more strikeouts (78) but generally doesn’t go as deep into the game as Trent having hurled just 77.1 innings. He’s walked 20 and hi five and opponents bat .244 against him.
The Rebels have an effective closer in Wyatt Short. Short has appeared in 22 games all in relief. With a 1.42 ERA, he has compiled a 4-1 record and recorded 10 saves while holding opponents to only .204.
Staff to staff, the Terps certainly appear to have the edge on the bump. The Rebels’ staff has a 4.44 ERA with opponents batting .269 against them. Maryland’s team ERA is 3.35 and holds their opponents to a mere .237. Terps pitchers are also more inclined to strike batters out putting 505 ‘Ks’ in the old scorebook while the Rebels’ staff has only posted 390.
Batter up!
On the surface, the Ole Miss lineup isn’t going to strike fear into the hearts of a staff like Maryland’s. The Rebels bat .269 as a team. They’ve hit only 36 home runs and 94 doubles on the season. In terms of batting average, Maryland puts up a very similar .269 batting average. However, the Terps power numbers of 50 home runs and 103 doubles appear to give Maryland the advantage.
The Rebels score 5.3 runs per game (precisely the number they give up as well) while the Terrapins score nearly 1 run per game more at 6.26. The Terps give up 4.3 runs per game.
If the last few games are indicative, it looks as though Ole Miss will be without their leadoff hitter Connor Cloyd. Cloys is very much a table setter for the Rebels. He his .400 and is, in fact the only Reb to bat over .300 for the season. However, he has played in only 36 games and has missed the last few.
The Rebels do have one big power threat in the lineup – first baseman Sykes Orvis. Though he bats only .267 on the season, he has smashed a team leading 16 home runs and 17 doubles. He also leads Mississippi in runs batted in with 53 and slugging percentage at .600.
Behind Orvis, the Terps will need to be aware of third baseman Colby Bortles. Bortles hist for a .286 average and is second on the team with 46 RBI. His seven home runs also tie him for the second spot in the Rebels’ lineup.
One other player on the Terps radar should be shortstop Errol Robinson. Robinson who should replace Cloyd in the leadoff spot is batting .291. He’s not a power threat but has been on something of a hot streak late in the season.
freddy from boca
if we get good pitching and play good defense we’ll be in the game.
· 11/12/2019