RACE 12: PREAKNESS
Analysis: California Chrome proved he was up to the hype by winning the Derby in the same impressive fashion as he had won his previous four races. The Preakness field and distance are not different enough from the Derby to expect a different outcome. The pace scenario should allow him to stay in stalking position, as his preference. Unless he has an off day, California Chrome should win it. Social Inclusion is very lightly raced and his only loss in three starts was in the Wood Memorial. In that one, he went off a heavy favorite but could not hold his speed to the wire, finishing third. If that race can be forgiven, he will be dangerous as part of the pace. Ride On Curlin’s performance in the Derby was better than it looks on form. He finished well despite a rough trip, and he should find less traffic in the Preakness. Ria Antonia has been very good against fillies but will struggle to keep up with the boys in the Preakness. Although Rachel Alexandra pulled it off, Ria Antonia does not appear to be as likely to do it.
For value: Kid Cruz comes in off a win in the Federico Tesio right here at Pimlico. Despite being lightly raced, was well bet in that one, and then backed it up with a strong, willing performance. Appears to be an improving horse. Based on breeding should love the distance.
What to bet: Buy a souvenir $2 win ticket on California Chrome because if he wins the Preakness, he could complete the Triple Crown. For exotics, key California Chrome and Kid Cruz over Social Inclusion, Ride On Curlin and Bayern in exacta and trifecta wagers.
I’ll Have Another works out at Pimlico. I like the jockey’s confidence and believe Mario will hunt down Bodemeister and win the Preakness.
Some more opinions tomorrow on Koons Ford Presents The Sports Maven at 9AM. Mucho Macho Man might be the greatest hunchbet of the decade.
The only way that Mine That Bird loses is if he has been overworked in the past 6 weeks.
The one thing that has set Athletic Director Debbie Yow’s career at the top of the NCAA is her ability to find the right hires for the University. Recently she reeled in Kerry McCoy from Stanford and now McCoy has the Terps as one of the top Wrestling programs in the country. Cathy Reese, also a recent hire, has injected life back into the Maryland Lady Lacrosse program. Maryland climb in the race for the Sears Cup, is a testament to Dr Yow’s hirings. In 2008-09 Maryland won 5 ACC Titles and 2 NCAA Championships. Now she is faced with the task of finding a top notch Baseball Coach. I anxiously await her hire!!!
This could only happen in horse racing. We could have a triple crown jockey. Sorry, Calvin Borel, you should have given Mine That Bird the mount in the Preakness. Even though Bird should easily win the Belmont, his record is blemished at the hands of his own favorite jockey.
This poor horse who only won the Derby and got parked out of a victory in the Preakness can’t find a stable jockey. My suggestion: Edgar Prado for once and the future, There is no way I would let Borel back on this horse after he deserted him in the Preakness. Remember his sire was Birdstone, a Belmont winner. The filly will duck the Bird and not race in the Belmont.
No filly has won the Preakness since 1924. Rachel Alexandra will not be able to run away from this field. She will be challenged early and not have the breezy run she had in the Oaks. The fast past up front will again play right into the Derby winner’s hands, setting up another come from behind win. Mike Smith for Calvin Borel is an upgrade. The following is my predicted order of finish:
First Mine That Bird
Second Musket Man
Third Rachel Alexandra
Long shot: Terrain was well regarded in Louisiana Derby and Blue Grass Stakes. Loves to run late and Saturday it could work. Odds are way too long for a horse this good.
What to bet: Mine That Bird to win. Exacta box: Mine That Bird, Musket Man, Terrain, General Quarters, Rachel Alexandra. Trifecta box: Mine That Bird, Musket Man, Terrain, Rachel Alexandra.
Terp Talk Thursday Night 5-14-09
Host–Bruce Posner Co Host –Dino
Guest– Dan Groot, Captain of Men’s Lacrosse
Subjects—Men’s and Women’s Lacrosse in the NCAAs Against Syracuse, Preakness
Maryland Lacrosse captain, Dan Groot, is scheduled to call in tonight at 6PM. My Cohost Dino and myself will review last week games. Preview the Irony Doubleheader against Syracuse. We will also discuss Basketball recruiting and if we have time lay out our Preakness picks for Saturday. Listen in on the web by clicking listen live on terptalk.com.
Upset winner Mine That Bird might do the unthinkable and skip the 133rd Preakness. The owners and trainer of the winning derby horse realize that his best race would be the Belmont , since Mine That Bird was bred for distance. Stay tuned!!