6:05 p.m.
Current total: 151.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 52 percent pick Oklahoma to cover
BPI: Oklahoma has a 58.3 percent chance of winning
Tuley: This game looks like a true coin flip. Our NCAA Vegas Rankings here at ESPN Chalk had both teams tied at 61.5 heading into the Sweet 16, and with both teams winning and covering by more than 10 points on Thursday night there’s no reason to view them as anything other than pick ’em. The oddsmakers seem similarly confused, as the Westgate Las Vegas opened the line at Oregon -1 before dropping to a pick ’em, while the Wynn Las Vegas went with Oklahoma -1.
While I’m going to pass on betting the spread, I’m looking to take the over. Both of these teams’ games stayed under on Thursday, but these two offenses did their part. Oklahoma’s Buddy Hield had a subpar game for his standards (he averages 25.1 points per game and scored “only” 17 against Texas A&M), but all five starters scored in double figures. With the spotlight on Hield and a trip to the Final Four at stake, I expect him to have a big game Saturday night and aid in this being a shootout.
Oregon has certainly shown its preference to run and gun, and the Ducks average 81.3 points per game (the Sooners average 80.3). And there’s one more reason I like the over: I get to root for overtime. I tend to play more unders than overs, and the worst thing that can happen is for the game to stay under throughout regulation, only to have it go to overtime. In grabbing the over, I would love a close game that comes down to the buzzer with the potential of bonus basketball, if it hasn’t already flown over the number by the end of regulation.
Pick: Over 151.5
8:45 p.m.
Current total: 145
PickCenter consensus pick: 56 percent pick Kansas to cover
BPI: Kansas has a 52.5 percent chance of winning
Tuley: I lost with Maryland against Kansas on Thursday night. I felt good with the way the game was going at halftime, with the Jayhawks leading by only two points (the Terrapins were getting +3 in the first half!), but then the Jayhawks pulled away in the second half. Now we have an even better team in Villanova taking on Kansas.
Villanova is averaging 88 points per game in the tourney, and really exploded against Miami on Thursday. The Wildcats hit 10-of-15 (66.7 percent) from 3-point territory — led by Kris Jenkins, who went 5-of-6 from beyond the arc and 18-of-19 from the free throw line, showing they had no problem with the shooting background in the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville. If they’re dialed in anywhere close to that, they’ll be tough to beat.
Kansas’ Perry Ellis (27 points against Maryland) is a concern, but Villanova’s Daniel Ochefu should be up to the task. Ochefu doesn’t need to shut him down, he just has to keep Ellis or Wayne Selden Jr. from going off and the Wildcats’ offense should do the rest.
Pick: Villanova*
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