Dan Feldman

 Jun 17, 2013, 4:34 PM EDT

This is the time of year when teams and agents create smokescreens so thick, firefighters can’t get through them. So, approach any report like this with a healthy dose of skepticism. But also consider that a beat writer for a major newspaper was confident enough to report it. There’s a fine line, and from the outside, it’s difficult to see through the haze and determine on which side each report falls.

Who might want the world to believe Len will go No. 1? Well, Len and his agent. Of course, what they want and the truth could coincide.

The Cavaliers probably don’t have as much incentive to leak their leaning until they’re certain of their choice, unless they’re just trying to convince other teams to trade for the pick. If Len is the bait Cleveland is dangling to persuade teams to trade up, that’s fairly surprising. I’d figure other teams would be much more likely to move up if they believed Nerlens Noel, Ben McLemore or Otto Porter wouldn’t be available lower.

Len is a good athlete with good size, and he’s pretty skilled, even if still a bit unrefined. He also had surgery in early May and can’t work out for teams, so I’m not sure why his stock has risen so rapidly since. To me, it seems like teams are too swayed by the flaws they see in players who can work out as Len holds steady without having to prove himself. The very-credible Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress has Len atop his draft board, though, so it’s tough to argue Len would be a total reach at No. 1.

The NBA Draft is 10 days away, and we often know the No. 1 pick by this point. Maybe this year it remains a mystery until Cleveland (or another team) actually makes the pick, but we could know much sooner whether Smith is on the right track.