RACE 12: PREAKNESS
Analysis: California Chrome proved he was up to the hype by winning the Derby in the same impressive fashion as he had won his previous four races. The Preakness field and distance are not different enough from the Derby to expect a different outcome. The pace scenario should allow him to stay in stalking position, as his preference. Unless he has an off day, California Chrome should win it. Social Inclusion is very lightly raced and his only loss in three starts was in the Wood Memorial. In that one, he went off a heavy favorite but could not hold his speed to the wire, finishing third. If that race can be forgiven, he will be dangerous as part of the pace. Ride On Curlin’s performance in the Derby was better than it looks on form. He finished well despite a rough trip, and he should find less traffic in the Preakness. Ria Antonia has been very good against fillies but will struggle to keep up with the boys in the Preakness. Although Rachel Alexandra pulled it off, Ria Antonia does not appear to be as likely to do it.
For value: Kid Cruz comes in off a win in the Federico Tesio right here at Pimlico. Despite being lightly raced, was well bet in that one, and then backed it up with a strong, willing performance. Appears to be an improving horse. Based on breeding should love the distance.
What to bet: Buy a souvenir $2 win ticket on California Chrome because if he wins the Preakness, he could complete the Triple Crown. For exotics, key California Chrome and Kid Cruz over Social Inclusion, Ride On Curlin and Bayern in exacta and trifecta wagers.
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